wxblog - 10/11/09 to 16/11/09
Monday, November 16, 2009
Today temps reached the high 30's on the Darling Downs and mid to high 30's in the SE Coast district. Some storms did develop, but these were surprisingly mostly subdued, though a storm did get going in the Gatton area which went past Crows Nest before decaying. Radar showed hail (probably small) was possible with the storm. On Tuesday there is the potential for severe storms but as usual, there are certain factors which could mean the difference between big storms and nothing at all. These concerns include high cloud and the possiblity of dry low level WSW winds. Instability in the mid to upper atmosphere continues to be very high, but on Tuesday a SE change moving up the coast could help things get going. Looking further ahead, high instability continues, especially inland, while upper winds are mostly slack, meaning storms will usually stay inland.
It would be wrong not to mention the massive storms of 1 year ago, specifically the one that smashed The Gap and Ferny Hills. That was a big day, and it's good to see things are returning to near-normal after such devastation.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Over the next week or so, high instability is expected over SEQ, which should lead to thunderstorms on most days. First risk day is today, when storms are possible on the Border Ranges later, helped by temperatures warming to the low 30's.
Friday, November 13, 2009: Toowoomba chase
Unfortunately coastal and near coastal areas missed out today, as an area of mid and high level cloud moved in at the crucial heating time, effectively putting an end to storm chances. Areas to the west had more time in the sun, and up went the storms. The best activity was early on the ranges south of the Granite Belt, but these storms moved north, and a supercell brought large amounts of mostly small hail to areas around Stanthorpe. Apparently there was enough hail to make 'hailmen'! This system continued to move north up the ranges. I planned on chasing and initially I left for the Warwick area but after a while I knew I had to pick a target further north, so Toowoomba was my next target. After struggling through roadworks and traffic jams, I eventually made it into town as the storms approached.
The following photos were taken in western Toowoomba; the rest are here.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Today was a mostly quiet day with some residual showers coming in from the SE due to the upper system affecting central and North Qld. It's effects continue to diminish.
The next system to produce interesting weather is likely on Friday. This system will produce showers and thunderstorms, which could be severe over inland arareas such as the southern Darling Downs. The mid/upper winds as this stage do not really favour coastal areas, but it's worth watching. Also, upper moisture is looking a little high, but this only means a greater threat for heavy rain/flash flooding and strong winds rather than large hail. More news later.
